Erthos · True Green / Lactalis · Project IRR Model · Preliminary & Confidential
One production basis. Two independent sets of commercial assumptions. Compare unlevered, pre-tax project returns to pinpoint where Erthos and True Green differ.
Fixed production basis · Year 1
Read-onlyQuantity in year t = Year-1 quantity × (1 − 0.0045)t − 1. No degradation in Year 1.
Project returns
Nominal USD · end-of-year cash flows
Different economics.
− Scenario 1
IRR deltas are percentage points (pp), not relative changes. All deltas use unrounded values. Payback is undiscounted, interpolated at the first recovery; later reversals are not deducted.
✓ / ✗ uses ±$5 tolerance against the supplied proposal figures. These fixed baseline checks do not change when either scenario is edited.
Tune the assumptions
Drag or type · live results · independent presets & resets
Live project IRR
rates in pp
All sliders have paired numeric inputs. Entries are bounded and rounded to the specified step; the numeric field is formatted on blur. Blank entries restore the last valid value. Inactive credit assumptions are retained but excluded from cash flows.
Changes stay in this page only. Reloading restores defaults. True Green fees and property tax are assumptions to reconcile, not verified commercial terms.
Scenario 1 · Full cash flows
Year 0 plus every operating year. Scroll horizontally for all columns. Amber rule marks the last PTC year. USD rounded only for display.
Scenario 2 · Full cash flows
Year 0 plus every operating year. Scroll horizontally for all columns. Amber rule marks the last PTC year. USD rounded only for display.
Assumptions, formulas & screening reconciliation
Model boundary: unlevered, pre-tax project cash flows; no debt, income tax, depreciation, residual value, working capital, replacement capex or construction delay. Steam is the only product sale; H2 and solar production earn the applicable assumed credits, not separate product-sale revenue.
- Initial investment: (EPC price + developer fee + finder’s fee + property tax) × 14,256,000 Wdc. Property tax is a Year-0 lump representing the supplied NPV-equivalent of a 30-year tax stream. There is no recurring property-tax expense and no tax escalator. The entered lump is not automatically resized when life or discount rate changes.
- Production: each Year-1 quantity declines 0.45% per year. Steam price and O&M escalate from Year 2. O&M is applied to fixed installed kWdc, not degraded production.
- PTC mode (45Y): solar PTC and H2 PTC accrue through the selected inclusive PTC term; both are zero afterward. Credit rates do not escalate. ITC is zero.
- ITC mode (48E): eligible basis = solar share × (EPC price + developer fee + finder’s fee) × 14,256,000 Wdc. Developer and finder’s fees are included; property tax is excluded. Year-1 ITC cash = eligible basis × ITC rate × monetization. Solar PTC is zero in every year. H2 PTC (45V) remains unchanged and expires on its own selected PTC term.
- ITC defaults: 40% assumed rate = 30% base + 10% energy community; 100% monetization assumes the owner has tax appetite for full value. Eligibility, prevailing-wage/apprenticeship conditions, energy-community status, basis treatment and credit availability require separate tax diligence; these are modeled assumptions, not a tax opinion.
- Timing: all initial investment is paid in Year 0; operating cash flows and assumed credit realization occur at each year-end. PTCs are assumed fully cash-realizable, without haircut or delay. The ITC inflow is an incentive, not steam sales.
CF₀ = −(EPC + developer + finder + property tax) × Wdc
Steam revenueₜ = steam₁ × (1 − 0.0045)^(t − 1) × price₁ × (1 + steam escalator)^(t − 1)
CFₜ = steam revenueₜ + H2 PTCₜ + solar PTCₜ + ITC cashₜ − O&M₁ × kWdc × (1 + O&M escalator)^(t − 1)
NPV(r) = Σ CFₜ / (1 + r)^t, including t = 0
- IRR: sign-bracketed bisection in log(1 + rate) space, using positive scaling near −100% to avoid overflow. Nonconventional flows are scanned for separate brackets; multiple detected roots or no bracket return “n/a” rather than selecting a favorable result. The search domain is approximately −100% to 100,000,000%.
- Simple payback: first year cumulative cash flow reaches zero, interpolated as prior complete years + unrecovered investment / recovery-year cash flow. “Not reached” means no recovery within the selected life.
- Legacy preset: the 8/20 screening case uses a 30-year life. Solar share, ITC rate and monetization inherit the S1 defaults because those inputs were not specified in the legacy case and are inactive in PTC mode.
The baseline verification strip checks the three supplied Year-1 proposal amounts only; it is not a reconciliation of an independently obtained True Green workbook.